Breaking It Down - The March Madness Begins
March 8, 2009
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
UConn was dealt a huge blow when Jerome Dyson went down with a knee injury. Craig Austrie and freshman Kemba Walker are good but not Dyson good. Their inside game is enough to stop anyone but they’ll need to score as they get deeper into the tournament. Notre Dame has to finish well or they won’t even get the invite. They were inexplicably bad for almost two months before crushing Louisville in a game they absolutely had to win. North Carolina looks awesome but no longer invincible, while Duke has been exposed in the frontcourt once again and have faded of late. Michigan State is starting to put it together but have to show more consistency from game to game. UCLA was rolling before back-to-back losses to Arizona State and Arizona, but rebounded against Washington. Pitt Panthers, in a workmanlike way have become as good as anyone. Dayton Flyers were grounded when starting point guard Rob Lowery was lost for the season. Gonzaga looks as if they’re headed for another one and done. Purdue needs Robbie Hummel to have any chance of making a run. The Mountain West looks to put four teams into the mix. The hottest and most consistent team to date? Oklahoma. They have lost once (at this time) and have the best player in college hoops, Blake Griffin. If the supporting cast plays soundly (as they have), the Sooners may be the team to beat. And, taking a breath, Kansas might be one year removed from another big run.
BEWARE!!
Earlier, I had suggested that UCLA, Davidson and Syracuse were teams to avoid when thinking about teams that will go deep into the NCCA tourney. Nothing much has changed and although UCLA is a solid team, they have struggled against top competition. They will get a high seeding, as much to do with reputation than anything else. Davidson has not beaten anyone of note, other than an early season win against West Virginia. Syracuse can score but not enough to offset their porous defense.
Others to be wary of include Tennessee, Marquette, Kentucky and Texas, although any of these is certainly capable of making a splash. Inconsistency has plagued Tennessee and Texas and though Marquette got off to a great Big East start, it was against the lower echelon of the league. Kentucky has great talent at all spots except point guard (see below).
LIKE THE TEAMS THAT…
Have strong leadership at the point. It is simply the most important spot in the college game. Back to the Davidson example again. As good as Stephen Curry is, the Wildcats sorely miss Jason Richards at the point. He was poised, controlled the game and set the offense in motion to use Curry’s abilities. Some to keep an eye on include Ty Lawson (NC), Tyreke Evans (Memphis), Levance Fields (Pitt), and Nick Calathes (Florida). Anyway, happy hunting in March. There will be just as many bargains as busts.
IN THE END
North Carolina wins. Not a bold prediction, I know, but a sound one. They have as much skill and more depth than any other team. They have experience and they are hungry. Only exceptionally bad defense should keep them out of the Final Four. And once there, they won’t be denied. As much as I like the way Oklahoma and Pitt have been playing, I don’t know that they can match up.
Bracket Bust
February 23, 2009
by Mike Henderson…
The 7th annual NCAA Bracket Busters completed another successful (?) weekend February 20th and 21st. Designed to give mid-majors the opportunity to add a quality win to their respective slates and possibly improve post-season seeding, this year’s version lacked the excitement of recent years.
Two years ago, the Southern Illinois Salukis went to Hinkle Fieldhouse (yes, the same one they used in “Hoosiers”) and beat the Butler Bears 68-64 in what some analysts described as “as good a game as you’ll see at any level.”
This year’s marquee game featured Butler at Davidson, top-flight programs that, despite their student populations of 4,000 (Butler) and 1,600 (Davidson), regularly seem to be in the picture at the end of the season. Butler won fairly easily to solidify their status for the tourney in March. Davidson, however, has limped (literally, with the injury to Stephen Curry) through February and appears to need the conference tourney title to get to the Big Dance.
The drama or interest took a significant drop from there. Utah State was dropped by St. Marys, who helped themselves by getting a win without star Patty Mills. Utah State and their gaudy #23 ranking were exposed, showing that great records aren’t always indicative of great teams. Even with only three losses on their resume, they’ll likely have to win their conference tourney to get in.
Others who could have helped themselves but didn’t were George Mason, Northern Iowa and Illinois State. A win for each would not have guaranteed anything but would have been a late-season road win against a decent team. All three were beaten soundly, although Northern Iowa rallied against Siena to make it look closer than it was.
In past years, the Bracket Buster has given some indication as to which of the smaller conferences might get more than one team into the NCAA tournament. This year’s edition has shown that outside of the Big Six (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and PAC 10), only the Mountain West and Atlantic Ten will get more than one team to the dance.
Gonzaga’s Talent Heart to Find
February 9, 2009
A handful of late season non-conference games, intended to give everyone (namely the NCAA selection committee) a better handle on who is who heading into the final month of the season, were showcased on the weekend. Three in particular were front and centre in both coverage and magnitude.
Michigan at UConn - While the final score was reasonably close, the Wolverines never really seemed like they were going to win the game. UConn has asserted themselves as not only a force in the Big East but nationally as well. I didn’t know whether they were an elite team earlier in the year and I’m still not sure they are but they have the inside presence that can deter other teams from even considering anything but outside shots.
I still think that they are only an Elite 8 team because of their poor outside shooting - someone will have to keep them away from the basket to beat them though.
Notre Dame at UCLA - Wow. At the beginning of the year, the Irish looked as good as anyone. Now they look as bad as anyone, refusing to believe that playing any semblance of defense will somehow aid in their cause.
After losing their seventh consecutive game on Saturday (and none of them really close), N.D. is now on the outside looking in. Thursday’s home game against Louisville is a must or their tournament hopes are gone. UCLA, on the other hand, seems to be picking up momentum at the right time. Ben Howland’s teams will play defense, and against the “Pylons and None” that the Irish prefer, their offense looked good as well. Jrue Holiday is a keeper.
Memphis at Gonzaga - This one is particularly hurtful. Memphis showed what playing with conviction and heart means, while Jeremy Pargo, Matt Bouldin and Austin Daye once again showed what quitting means. I seriously thought that the Zags had Final Four talent but in the games against the best teams these guys just don’t show up. NBA prospects? Who’s kidding who here?
The phrase “these guys won’t let me do what I want, so I’m not playing any more” comes to mind. Except, they forgot to take the ball home with them while they watched Demetri Goodson, Ira Brown and Micah Downs propel a run that made the 18-point loss seem much, much closer than it was.
While this in no way impacts my life in a profound way, it’s hard to watch a favourite team gag once again. John Calipari’s Tigers played hard, they played smart and they played together. Their dismantling of Gonzaga in what was essentially a home game for the Zags had nothing to do with talent.
So what does this all mean? Well, I suppose it means that UConn will be a 1 or 2 seed come tournament time, barring a collapse in league play. It means that Memphis will fight you in the street, on the court, in the stands or anywhere you want, so you’d better come prepared. It means that pretty doesn’t always count, even if you’re Irish. And, it means if you have talent, you’d better be prepared to face someone who doesn’t care, even if most of your league does.
There’s Always a Silver Lining…..Okay, a less valuable metal maybe. But, the Southern Illinois Salukis won Saturday. Who cares, right? They won’t make the Big Dance this year but playing with only eight players (five freshman, a sophomore and two seniors) they are still fun to watch (for diehard fans, I guess). Wait ’til next year. Anthony Booker and Kevin Dillard will rule!
Around the Rim: Davidson Wildcats (the kingdom of Stephen Curry) boasts two top Canadians in Max Paulhus Gosselin and Will Archambault. Both are big contributors to the Southern Conference leader. However, their 44-game conference winning streak, one short of the league record, was snapped on Saturday in a 77-75 loss to Charleston. Max Boudreau, a 6′7″ junior from Montreal is averaging 5 points and 3 rebounds per game with the MAAC-leading Buffalo Bulls. Tyler Kepkay, a senior guard from Vancouver, is averaging 10 points and 3 boards per game for the surprising Utah Utes, co-leaders of the tough Mountain West Conference.
The Good, The Bad and The Stupid
February 2, 2009
The good far outweighs the bad and the stupid in college hoops but sometimes the latter stands out too much to ignore.
The Good
Ryan Toolson - He will not receive any votes for player of the year. However, when you play for Utah Valley State and you play every minute of a quadruple overtime game, and you throw in 63 points, you deserve something. Even just a plaque. Toolson’s team won the game, but just as remarkable is the fact that losing team Chicago State had two players (David Holston and John Cantrell) score 41 and 40 points respectively.
Patty Mills - This is a good news, very bad news story for the St. Mary’s Gaels. After knocking down 6 threes in the first half against rival Gonzaga, including some from distances that were unseemly, Mills fell and broke a bone in his hand. Up by six at the half, the Gaels lost by seven. The Sophomore guard will miss 4 weeks, putting the Gaels NCAA hopes in jeopardy. He is as good as it gets at the guard spot in college basketball.
Dino Gaudio - He doesn’t look like a second-year head man on the sidelines because he is lacking the demonstrative, pained-look, outstretched arms, whining attitude that say, a Jim Boeheim has. After the death of close friend Skip Prosser, Wake Forest’s program could have headed in a very negative direction, but Gaudio has stepped in, recruited well and has a top ten team, one of the most physically and athletically imposing teams in all of the NCAA. He has succeeded, with his players, in a very difficult situation.
Bob Knight - Okay, he has as many detractors as fans, but I really like his analysis as the colour man on ESPN. He is insightful, makes very accurate observations and is almost always looking to comment on the positive contributions a player is making, especially non-scoring plays. Sadly, he doesn’t do enough games, and, is saddled with Brent Musberger at times. Say no more.
The Bad
Kelvin Sampson - The guy who made eight jillion (a very large number) “impermissible” phone calls, hung an assistant out to dry and left the Indiana basketball program in a complete mess, has appealed his 5-year ban from coaching. I’m thinking that this appeal for what he calls an “unjustified” suspension will lead to a reduction and will include this year. I’m also thinking that he’s eyeballing a job somewhere and needs to know if he is going to be able to land it. Here’s hoping the NCAA stands its ground - not something they are known for.
Dick Vitale - He has done more for fundraising (Coaches for Cancer, etc.) than anyone so including him in this section is a little harsh. So, simply put, he needs to continue to do his promoting of the game but get off the air. He spends far too much time plugging these things and lauding the skill of the coaches than actually dissecting the game, which is kind of the guy’s job.
The Stupid
Aubrey Coleman - You play for the Houston Cougars, a team that has not been to the NCAA tournament in seventeen thousand years. Your team has a good record. You average 18 points and 8 rebounds per game. You are playing at Arizona, a team that is down a bit this year but still good enough to make your resume look better. You are up by ten in the second half. You step on Chase Budinger’s face. You are ejected and subsequently suspended. Your team loses in overtime.
Eddie Rios - After a sharp decrease in playing time at Miami (FL) and a team suspension, Rios decided he needed to play more, specifically on the laptops and x-box systems he stole out of dormitory rooms on campus. Also found in his possession was a license to carry firearms - which had someone else’s name on it. Rios will likely not start until next week at the earliest.
Around the Rim
Still sticking with my final four picks from earlier - North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Gonzaga, Purdue. I don’t know why. Emerging sleeper threats include South Carolina (coach Darrin Horn knows a thing or two about the March excitement), Siena (the same bunch that upset Vanderbilt last year) and the Dayton Flyers, who have quietly compiled an excellent won / loss record (20-2) and RPI (35).
Real Games to Watch
January 26, 2009
Every weekend, there seems to be about seven or eight must see games in NCAA basketball. And every weekend, CBS picks up the Big Ten or ACC or Big East match-up with the big names (Duke et al) that will attract viewers for that reason alone. As a non-reformed college hoops addict, I am eternally grateful to ESPN.
On Saturday, two of the better games of the year were played by the lesser knowns. Not totally unknown, but not always in the limelight. Perennial mid-major heavyweight Xavier travelled to Baton Rouge to take on the LSU Tigers, who have recently emerged as the favourite to win the SEC west. The first half alone was worth the two hours. After trailing by ten early, LSU rallied, went ahead, fell behind, went ahead - well, you get it. Great shot after great shot fell and the pace of the game was tremendous. LSU found it harder to score in the second half against what is a very good defensive team in Xavier, and eventually fell by ten. There was no disappointment for anyone watching (bettors aside) and the teams both knew they were in a war.
Another mid-major battle was better. 2006 Final Four darlings, the George Mason Patriots lined up with the Virginia Commonwealth Rams, with the loser falling out of a tie for first in the ultra-competitive Colonial Athletic Conference. The Patriots, playing without second-leading scorer, John Vaughan, who collapsed on the foul line earlier this week in a game against Northeastern, fell behind by fifteen in the second half, only to make the proverbial monumental comeback and get within one. A pair of threes iced it late for VCU but what a game! I was certain that there were about fifteen thousand at the game and was shocked to see the attendance figure of 7,600, because that place was rockin’. Oh yes, and if you haven’t seen Eric Maynor play, do. The announcer’s name escapes me (sad, I know) but his understatement stuck with me. “Boy, is he good.”
I don’t think any of these four teams will be in the Final Four. Only two or three of them could even be in the tournament at the end of the season. But I love watching teams that play every game like it’s their last. Maybe the talent level isn’t the same but who cares? And who doesn’t want to watch players like Maynor or Marcus Thornton of LSU?
The Big Boys: Georgetown and Notre Dame have both been exposed for their lack of depth in a tough Big East Conference. Because of the hype and pre-season build up for this league, both are almost assured of invitations to the Big Dance. However, it would be nice to see them win some games too.
Duke keeps rolling, even without a big man. No, I don’t count Zoubek. Yes, I like Coach K (spell check will only acknowledge his last name as a phonetic conundrum) but I don’t have much love for Duke. They will be number one in the polls this week.
I still think Pittsburgh and North Carolina are the two best teams. If Dejuan Blair doesn’t have foul trouble, no way Pitt loses to Louisville. And NC will show why they are the pick to win it all in short order. They came down to earth hard and the ACC will feel the repercussions.
Around the Rim: Willie Galick of Nanaimo, BC is averaging eleven points and six rebounds for the CSU Northridge Matadors in the Big West. Freshman Adam Folker of Markham averages three points and three rebounds per game for the UC Irvine Anteaters in the same conference. Sophomore Jon House, a native of Guelph, is contributing eight points and four rebounds per game with the Belmont Bruins of the Atlantic Sun conference.
Butler Rocks; Boston College Dethroned - Harvard is # 1
January 13, 2009
by Mike Henderson…
Mid Majors Rule
It is a testament to solid structure and coaching that schools like Butler can maintain the consistency it has, especially in a year where they are replacing 90 percent of their scoring. Their only misstep was a three point loss at Ohio State (when the Buckeyes were at full strength) and their victims include UAB, and road wins at Xavier and pre-season Horizon league favourite, Cleveland State. I love the fact that players who go into these types of situations actually look like they want to be there. And I love the fact that no matter who the opponent is the game will be competitive, despite the obvious recruiting edge held by schools in the larger conferences.
Respect Can Be Fickle
After mere hours as the unofficial people’s champion of college hoops, Boston College has tendered its official resignation. For weeks (actually the whole season) of being neglected in the rankings, the Eagles soared as high as #17 in some polls (that were apparently conducted in the Florida region). However, though no specific details were given, it seems that the basketball team was so incensed by the firing of football coach Jeff Jagodzinski that, in blatant protest, it lost to Harvard. There is no question that the Crimson devised a very intelligent game plan to foil the Eagles after the latter’s big win over North Carolina. B.C. players admitted after the game that they were, in fact, beguiled and tricked by Harvard’s passing and shooting. One player was overheard remarking how neatly each Harvard player wore his uniform, and, that they were hardly sweaty at all after the game. The Crimson has since furthered their court dominance with a convincing 63-62 win over Dartmouth (now 2-11 on the season). Bandwagons continue to crash and burn.
Harvard is No. 1
Using ESPN analyst Jay Bilas’ logic, wherein long words with ambiguous, complicated meanings were uttered, Harvard Crimson is the number one team in NCCA basketball. Boston College beat North Carolina, who at the time was ranked # 1. Harvard, in turn, beat Boston College the very next time out, which if only for a few days, makes them the best. I couldn’t agree more. A contingency poll should have been conducted immediately to allow Harvard their rightful place at the top. At least for a day. What Tommy Amaker couldn’t seem to do at Michigan (win the big game - sorry, I’m not counting the NIT), he did in his second year with the Crimson. Let him bask in the spotlight and look down at the Boeheims and Calhouns for just a little while. By the way, I’m sure Bilas was being as facetious as I am.
Around the Rim: Francis-Cedric Martel, a freshman from Montreal, is averaging about 11 minutes per game for the Richmond Spiders, contributing 3 points and 3 rebounds per game. Jamie Vanderbeken of Belleville, a junior for the Iowa State Cyclones, averages 4 points, 3 rebounds and one block for the season.
Have to Watch:
Monday - Notre Dame vs. Louisville - Harangody is worth watching all on his own.
Texas vs. Oklahoma - early, and only, clash of the Big 12 titans
Wednesday -Syracuse vs. Georgetown - The Hoyas will find their range against the
Orange
Saturday - Georgetown vs. Duke, Arizona St. vs. UCLA,
Wake Forest vs. Clemson - both could still be unbeaten
NCAA BASKETBALL: PICKING THE FIELD
December 24, 2008
By Mike Henderson…
With conference play underway, most of the big-name programs have satisfied their non-conference RPI demands, and while it is clear who has lived up to expectations, there is curious competition among other possible contenders.
Thirty-one automatic bids to the NCAA championship are supplemented by the 34 at-large berths, and talk of a record number of teams representing the Big East is rampant. Of course, any league with this many teams can say it is the best, but this year it is evident. There could be as many as 10 teams playing in the Madness. What is also becoming evident is that the agreement between the NBA and the NCAA (no high school draftees) will almost guarantee that the George Masons of the college basketball world will be very few and very far between. Smaller conferences chances of gaining at-large bids are getting fainter each year simply because they can’t attract the type of prospect that the schools from big conferences can. The Derek Roses and Michael Beasleys aren’t going to Austin Peay or Tulane for their one year in college.
Of the 31 conferences, 21 will most likely send their tournament winner only to the Big Dance. Part of the fun of picking a March Madness bracket is trying to figure out which teams from the other 10 leagues will get in and how they are going to fare once they do. Some results from early play are very relevant - Michigan State’s recent road win at Texas, for example - but for most teams “on the bubble”, the last ten games are the true indicator of the team’s progress from beginning to end.
Despite this, and not knowing how the last ten games will go, I’ve already narrowed things down to something workable for poolies, and it goes like this.
For the 44 spots available - it is too early use the “bubble” term so I went with “maybe”- these are the possibles.
Atlantic Ten
For sure: Xavier
Likely: Temple
Maybe: St. Joseph’s, UMass
ACC
For sure: North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest
Likely: Clemson
Maybe: Virginia Tech, Miami, Florida State, Maryland
Big 12
For sure: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas
Likely: Baylor
Maybe: Missouri, Texas A&M
Big East
For sure: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Georgetown, Villanova,
Louisville
Likely: Marquette
Maybe: West Virginia, Cincinnati
Big Ten
For sure: Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State
Likely: Wisconsin, Minnesota
Maybe: Michigan, Illinois
Conference USA
For sure: Memphis
Likely: UAB
Maybe: Houston, East Carolina
Mountain West
For sure: UNLV, BYU
Likely: None
Maybe: San Diego State, Wyoming
Pac-10
For sure: Arizona State, UCLA
Likely: Arizona, USC
Maybe: Washington, Washington State, California, Stanford
SEC
For sure: Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky
Likely: LSU
Maybe: Alabama, Vanderbilt, Mississippi
West Coast
For sure: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Likely: None
Maybe: San Diego
None of the “maybes” have distinguished themselves to date, but some of them will be selected. In the mid- and small conferences here are the winners:
America East - Vermont Atlantic Sun - Belmont
Big Sky - Portland State Big South - VMI
Big West - CSU Northridge Colonial Athletic - Old Dominion
Horizon League - Illinois-Chicago Ivy League - Cornell
MAAC - Siena MEAC - Morgan State
Mid-American - Kent State Missouri Valley - Illinois State
Northeast - Mount St. Marys Ohio Valley - Murray State
Patriot League - American Southern - Davidson*
Southland - Lamar Summit - IUPUI
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky SWAC - Alabama State
WAC - Nevada
The Southern Conference is likely the one here that could place two teams in the tourney, in the unlikely event that someone manages to beat Davidson in the conference tournament. The Horizon and Missouri Valley (Go Salukis!) are remote possibilities as well.
Of course, much of this is preamble. There are only a (small) handful of teams that could win it all. But watching David battle Goliath in March has some special appeal because for Goliath there is no second chance (see the 4 vs. 13 games). And for David, the George Masons still exist.
SLEEPERS
Minnesota - not sure how good they can be but things are looking good for Tubby Smith. Canadian content too, with Devoe Joseph earning some minutes.
LSU - same thing here. New boss Trent Johnson has lots of athleticism and experience.
St. Marys - Last year’s experience should pay off. Patty Mills is one of the quickest players on the court in any game.
BEWARE
Davidson - this is not the same team as last year.
Syracuse - loads of talent, much more depth and, as a bonus, Eric Devendorf, voted by members of my immediate family as: a) most likely to implode….at any time; or b) most likely to become Sean Avery’s roommate and star in a TV reality show about misunderstood adolescents. Oh yeah, no D either.
UCLA - see Davidson.
ELITE 8
North Carolina Duke
Pittsburgh Texas
Connecticut Purdue
Oklahoma Gonzaga
FINAL 4
North Carolina
Pittsburgh
Gonzaga
Purdue
Yes, absolutely some bias here. Go Bulldogs!
Around the Rim: Tyree Evans, a former top recruit who walked on at Kent State, played in his first game recently, scoring 21 points, hitting 5 of 8 threes. Nice to see Maurice Joseph (from Montreal), who transferred from Michigan State to Vermont, contributing with his new team (8.0 ppg). Mangisto Arop, a native of Sudan, has signed with Gonzaga for next season. He currently attends the National Elite Development Academy in Hamilton, Ontario.
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