Money Makers – Super Bowl Props Edition:

January 24, 2009

by Mike De Marco… With a week off before the Big Game we take a look at some of the best proposition bets you might find in next week’s game. Here are my favourites:

1st Sack of the game – Pittsburgh -130
I strongly believe that the Steelers game plan will be to rattle Warner early, and that is done by blitzing. The Steelers will probably try to establish the run on the opening drive where as the Cards will pass. Warner is very much less mobile than Roethlisberger.

Player to score first TD of the game – Anquan Boldin +750
The Steelers will be double and triple teaming Larry Fitzgerald, this leaves Boldin with a ton of one on one coverage. All though he will not be the target of choice for Warner, it won’t prevent the savvy veteran from throwing to single coverage. Warner wants to win period.

Longest completion of the game:  Over under is 39.5 yards – Over
The Cards will be throwing all game long and the Steelers have hit big plays in both of their playoff games. Both quarterbacks might hit this and it would not surprise me to see more than two plays go above this total. Take a look at the NFC Championship where there FOUR plays above this number.

Kurt Warner pass completions: 22.5 – Over (Power Prop)
For Arizona to win Warner will have to air it out all game.  The Steeler D will be coming all game, but Warner is a tough cookie who will stand in the pocket and take a hit to make a throw. This number is way too low for my liking.

Will the game go into overtime? Yes +800
The Super Bowl has never had an overtime game. It is due.

Aussie Open Day 5: Federer, His Fans, The Big Man, Kleybanova, Brawls and Beer

January 24, 2009

by L.J. Silver… Friday Evening—quite easily my favorite part of the week. A beer with an old mate beckons later, but wanted to write this before.

Subtle as a Sledge-Hammer: A score indicates half the story of the match at best. Rodge taught me something again when I watched him this morning (really long day at the lab and tired too … but wanted to catch FED vs. Safin).

Rodge started out supremely aggressive, not holding back, no measured aggression, no tempered rallies, he was explosive to the T. He sent a message to Safin very early, that he is prepared to play the big-man’s game.

Once he settled in with 6 – 3, that’s when you have to watch Rodge to gauge what goes on inside his rarefied mind. As he went deeper into the second set he realized that he had indeed rattled Safin with his aggression and explosion until then, and now he wanted to come back and increase the margin for error a bit more. Very similar to Schumacher, once Michael knows he has the race in the bag he controls the pace of his Ferrari but still making sure he wins comfortably.

FED for most part of the second set, pretty much pulled back his claws in a bit, increased the margin for error, cut down on the pace of his shots and played a comparatively more percentages game. He was so ahead already that he won it 6 – 2.

Set three he went off the boil a bit, combined with the fact Marat got very comfortable with this match by then, Rodge’s foot movement went off a bit , he held on however, Safin played some of his best game in the set, but it was two sets too late.

I still think those foot faults at 1-3 in the breaker was horrendous, Safin won four points continuously, but Rodge got through the line with that backhand down the line pass screamer on match point. I think to watch Federer – Safin, it is so much more enjoyable if you are more of a tennis fan rather than being partisan, for one or the other.

The Ball-Striking was luscious and splendid at points on both sides. The sweet sound of ball hitting the racket during their vicious, unyielding rallies is absolutely unique and chocolate-like irresistible.

You would have missed how quite beautifully Rodge controlled (well, you cannot control Safin completely, but as much as you can) the tempo of the match quite outstandingly from beginning to end, the way he took the match by the scruff of its neck at the beginning, and then let it sit under his command in the second set … before delivering the final execution is a lesson to any pro wielding a racket.

Love Rodge … his control of the match last night was as ‘Subtle as a Sledge-Hammer’, Safin was always more reactive, than pro-active, that’s the problem when you play Federer, you cannot get comfortable at any point of the match.

Lovely—A Lesson from the Swiss Maestro himself.

The Big Man: I loved the poster ‘WE BELIEVE IN MARAT SAFIN’ in the stands. The same thread continued, as in the Wimbledon 2008 semis. It takes Safin AT LEAST two sets to get comfortable with the pace, variation and tempo of Federer these days.

Then he plays his best, but its two sets too late. As Safin said in the interview, Federer makes him uncomfortable and he is never comfortable during rallies, I can sense the feeling watching Safin trade groundies with Federer last night.

He plays well, he plays beautiful, but he never looks like he is very comfortable, like I said, more reactive than pro-active.

As I mentioned two days before, the same monster of ‘Time’ has caught up with Safin (as it did with Hewitt).

The Safin of now, differs from the Safin of OZ 2005 in just two simple ways. He is a touch inconsistent off the ground (just a smidgen) and he has lost probably a shade of speed. That’s the difference at the very top echelon of sport, that very difference between being at 9.1 and 8.9 (out of 10) will make all the difference in the world.

Safin was erratic on his forehand last night, but still came up with beautiful shots at times. His comparatively higher inconsistency proved to be his Achilles heel. He served very well in the third, but it was too late.

If the breaker had gone his way, things might have gotten very interesting in the fourth, but there was just no way Rodge was going to even allow that. Right or wrong, but I found myself asking the very SAME question Marat implored at the short linesman (Why? Why? Why?). It irked me to no end as well, but Safin kept his head.

The genuine embrace at the end between the two was extremely poignant and admirable.

I think at heart Safin thinks like someone who is sympathetic towards others, I can see that, in his mind he will not call a foot fault against someone at 1-3 (on second serve, in the breaker 0-2 sets down against Federer) at any cost, he would warn them, but never call the actual foot fault.

I can see why he thinks along those lines … I do too. View the world in its light and dark, on how you want it to be. Save copies of the big man’s two-fisted backhand however …. It’s archived in the coaching textbooks forever.

As Safin said in his presser yesterday (beautiful, here) this is indeed his last year. He sounded like a fifth year PhD student (something I can relate too), I’ve been here and I’ve done well, now I want to move on with my life.

May be some will not, but how can you not adore Safin?

The game will become less richer without him, when people retire I normally am very happy that they have done well and moving on to better things in life, but am sure I’ll miss the big man, my sweet Russian.

A part of my heart will shed more than a tear am sure, the day he hangs his (broken) rackets on the wall.

The Psychology of A Federer Fan: Economists call this ‘The Principle of Non-Satiation’. It’s fascinating to see how Federer fans react to a game like this one.

First they get really nervous and scared because they know Safin has the potential to play ball and go toe-to-toe with Federer, may be even defeat him. So, once they know the result they are content, and now the auxiliaries kick in.

Then they become unhappy because of various reasons such as Federer not getting enough practice, he not being tested (the score might indicate three sets, but I thought he was playing in another planet this morning—if playing Safin is not testing enough, then I don’t know what else is), he being absolutely low in confidence…and above all Safin not testing him enough.

It could be a John Hopkins Psychology case study almost, may be a Federer fans’ perfect scenario goes like this, Safin should play well, but not too well, he should test Rodge but not too much, he should push him every point but not win many of them, he should play just well enough for Rodge to get a bloody good work out but never even come close to the vicinity of defeating him.

May be that’s the perfect scenario?  There is just one small problem, Safin does not exist to serve his part in this whole flawless concept of Federer needing to reach 14 here, the big man plays to win—as am sure you will too. All the world is a stage, and all men and women are players … but they play their own game. Interesting, they are certainly not boring to say the least, Federer fans. Good on you mate!

Chair Throwing and Alcohol Problem: After the very entertaining the De-Joker – Delic (Serb and a Bosnian – American) four-setter yesterday afternoon, the Serbian fans threw a chair at the teen-girl in the stands.

Granted, all the political problems between Serbia and Bosnia now withstanding, it was still despicable behavior from the Serb fans to indulge in such a deplorable act that left a bad after-taste in an otherwise perfectly played match.

De-Joker and Delic got along very well and the camaraderie between them was quite commendable.

Is it the same old problem? The alcohol problem, I understand that a beer is as much ingrained in the Australian culture as … hot-dogs and burgers are in America, but maybe they should reconsider the alcohol rule again in Melbourne?

Mary Carillo absolutely does not like it, Cahill understands why beer is a part of the Australian open, but Melborune is a true cultural melting pot, year in and year out it hosts fans from all around the world for this event.

Hence, for the sake of avoiding more untoward instances like these from inebriated imbeciles, the organizers must revisit the alcohol rule?

De-Joker has been way off the boil, but he has survived the first week. At present I think he is fourth in the quartet of favorites.  I do expect a stronger version of Nole next week, and am not being wishful, I think he will get better.

Form is temporary, class is permanent. He was also visibly annoyed when the reporters kept asking him about the fan-policing. He was being logical, it’s not his problem.

The Intrepid Russian: Last night the Russian Kleybanova played intrepid, yes, that’s the only word for it. Her upper body jerk every time she hits a backhand is not conventional and will definitely lead to injuries, but that backhand she has in her arsenal is consummately lethal.

As Ivanovic fought tooth and nail to come back and win the second set breaker, one would have expected the youngster (both after losing the second set and then in the third) to go away or get nervous.

In the end, the choke never came, this kid really believed she would win Ivanovic … and the fearlessness was quite astonishing to witness. It is a long way back for Ana from now on, given her indifferent form of late.

Other than that—that’s the wrap up for this week, it was a true melting pot yesterday, a day crazier than Safin himself. The business end of the tournament beckons next week.

Cheers

PS: Am famished and ravenously hungry for some weird reason…Gonna tuck i. For Marat fans:

Maple Leafs Trade Deadline: Who Stays, Who Goes? Part 2 of 2

January 24, 2009

by Tyler Hill… In Part One, I covered the forwards I thought needed to be included, and now, in Part Two, I’m looking towards the defensive end, which includes the guys between the pipes. Enough talk—let’s go!

Jeff Finger:

Finger signed a big contract with the Leafs during the off-season, and it definitely raised a few eyebrows. Although Finger may not be living up to the hefty contract he signed over the summer, he is still playing well with the Leafs and has been a solid defenseman for them. He’s gritty and tough, and that’s what the Leafs need.

Brian Burke’s acquisition of Brad May shows he wants grit too. I’m sure he wants to keep any grit he already has on the roster. Besides, who wants Finger’s $3.5m contract anyway?

Stays.

Pavel Kubina:

More rumours surround this guy than that one girl from your high school. Well, maybe not, but there is at least one rumour that Kubina could be involved in a trade with Nik Antropov.

When I wrote Part One I didn’t think Antropov was going to be traded, but after a few comments, I realized getting Antropov out with Kubina might not be a bad idea. They’re starting to age and likely won’t get much better.

This 31-year-old defenseman has been improving his game in Toronto in the last few months, and if they want to get rid of him, now is the time to do it. A team that needs a solid defenseman to help make a playoff run might jump at the chance to grab Kubina, and I don’t think Mr. Burke would hesitate to pull the trigger.