Aussie Open Day Six: Christmas Comes Late in the Federer Household

by L.J. Silver… Is Christmas on Jan. 25? May be it is in the Federer household. May be Tomas had a cold and missed school when they taught ‘Sports Psychology’, I know the lesson he missed—‘DON’T play the man, but play the ball’. Easier said than done, I hear you saying, I agree.

I think Tomas caught up on most of his notes because he did play the ball up until when he needed it most from then on. We always knew Tomas had the game, and he made sure he let us know that today for the better part of the first three sets, all Rodge did was to barely cling on for his dear life, by the skin of his teeth.

Berdych looked up and came today to Laver, to play. His groundies were stunning, lethal, monstrous and powerful. The way he tee’d of on his inside out forehand was outstanding, his serve clicking well into the 200 kmph range followed by the gargantuan forehand (the famous lock and load, 1-2 punch). There were times when FED knew Tomas was going to go inside-out but all he could do was, watch it sail by into the doubles alley. The backhand wasn’t bad either, that is precisely how he got to 6-4 7-6.

Last year in the exact same stage Tommy held set points in the second set, but never converted them. I thought things have changed (may be that he has attended those psychology classes, apparently not). But well documented is his suspect mentality … that at 3-3 in the third when he had the rare opportunity to hold on and make the final lunge towards the finish line, he CRACKED.

Just when he realized that he was incredibly close to knocking Rodge out of OZ, he could not take it because he just wasn’t psychologically ready – he could not believe it himself, and for the lack of a less harsh word, he CHOKED. He always has against Rodge, and I am willing to throw the gauntlet and say, it is a very safe bet if one claims that Tommy will not win Rodge again in the future.

As much as some find it hard to believe, you only can play as well as your opponent allows you to play. Rodge does not adhere to that sentiment most of the times because he does whatever he wants on court most of the times, but today was an exception. The way Tomas tee’d on his groundies made it hard from the get-go for Rodge to do anything, there was not a lot Rodge could do. Being a double break down did not help matters, and he pulled one back but still lost the first set.

The second whizzed past in a breaker. He hung on in the third, he looked visibly nervous. The two missed volley’s followed by the bad miss of the dunk smash, gave Federer the break at 3-3. He won it 6-4…and I guess everyone knew that it was going to be hard for Tomas from then on. With one break in the first game, Rodge won the fourth 6-4 and cleaned Berdych out 6-2 in the fifth. Absolutely satisfying effort for Rodge, from come back from two sets down.

He displayed more emotions in Laver today, he always does, especially when he is in trouble. They always say, superior game and more importantly, superior nerves define a champion, it in indeed the latter that won Rodge the match today. He knew he was stronger mentally than Tomas, and more importantly, Tomas knew it as well.

I called up my best mate as asked him sarcastically, ‘what the hell has Berdy been smokin’ to play like this in Laver?’…and he would respond, ‘I don’t know what he as been smokin’, but it apparently wore off after the second set’.

I think one of the problems today was Federer’s serve, every time he broke Berdych, he was broken straight back. To be fair to him, Berdy today was like playing Gonzo, there was NOT a lot FED could do on court, given the way Berdych was hitting and timing his groundies.

The one thing that disappointed was how Berdy looked content in the interview that he got so close to Rodge, I would not be, I would still be distraught that I lost being that close to victory. Hunger?

I don’t think Rodge played well today, but it is because the opponent did not allow him to. But he survived, and the first week of slams is all about survival. I thought he wasn’t playing that great in NY 2008 either, even in the final. That is why I termed it as a ‘Blue Collar Win’, because he did not walk on water like he sometimes does in slams.

It is about winning at the end of the day, and even more important is to win when you aren’t playing your best tennis. Winning UGLY!

Like I told Joan during the third set, you don’t get to become Federer, if you don’t pull out matches such as this out of the bag. He had no business winning today, but you win matches when you name is Roger Federer I guess, that you should have otherwise lost.

I predict Rafael and Murray are the top two favorites in the same order based on the form book, I think Rodge and De-Joker (with ROD) are the next two favorites in the same order. But the form book is only one of the governing factors to win a slam, not everything.

But Federer has obviously proved many wrong before in NY last year, am sure he would love to this time as well.

Life is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you are gonna get, right?

Wear your Santa outfits Rodge fans, based on tonight, Christmas comes a month later in the Federer household.

OZ 09 is heating up…more than Melbourne in itself.

Leafs’ Competitive Young Core For 2011-2012

by Mark Smith… How long must we wait for a strong Toronto Maple Leafs team, and what could it look like? With valuable cap space available, the answer to the first question might be as little as two years.  The second question has no real answer, but we can play out scenarios to get an idea of what is possible.

The key question is how the Leafs can put together a strong ‘core’ of players who they can build on for years to come.  A good team requires role players and chemistry, but it also requires a strong core of talent in goal, defense, and forward.  Who could this core be made of for the Leafs?

I’ll keep the scenario aggressive, but realistic. Let’s start with those already in system. Luke Schenn is for real, and will be an anchor on defense. Following the examples of Pittsburgh and Chicago, Leafs could look to make him captain as early as 2011-2012.

Justin Pogge is an NHL goalie, let’s assume for this scenario that he develops into a clear N.1 goalie in two years.  Finally, let’s put Grabovski or Tlusty in as a top six forward for the same time frame.   

There is some further potential amongst prospects, but let’s assume none of them come through to become part of the core.  We go next to the prime draft pick we’ll have at the end of this year.  This could easily be a N.2 pick (Hedman), but let’s be conservative and assume they scoop Luke’s brother Brayden with the N.4 or N.5 pick.

He becomes a young core player within two to three years.  The Leafs will also land a strong young player or prospect in trading Kaberle and/or Antropov/Kubina.  Last year Philadelphia offered Jeff Carter (a young goal scoring forward with clear star potential even before his breakout season this year) and a first round pick.  

Young, with a very reasonable contract in place, Kaberle remains very valuable in a trade.  Let’s go with a rumour and have him packaged with Toskala to the LA Kings for Anze Kopitar.  This is all before any free agent signing, so finally let’s assume Leafs land Bouwmeester with some of their cap space.  

Going into next year, this would have the Leafs’ core looking as follows;

Goal: Justin Pogge (23)

Defense: Luke Schenn (20), Jay Bouwmeester (26)

Forward: Anze Kopitar (22), Brayden Schenn (18), Mikhail Grabovski (24)

Looks like the start to a good core for many years to come.  It’s not unrealistic, and still leaves room for Leafs to complement them with some good grit, leadership and role players.  Leafs can add more to this young core with next year’s first rounder, as well as prospects or picks they get from trading Antropov or Kubina.  

So over to Burke to make this happen. It’s doable and gives us an exciting Chicago style team as early as two seasons from now.

“Inches Make a Champion”: The Leafs Against the Champions of Old

by Ben Dover… ”He who is small in faith, will never be great at anything but failure.” - proverb

Funny how contradictory this quote applies to Toronto Maple Leaf fans. I would think only Boston Red Sox fans would be the only club that would come close to such zealousness for a championship. Both teams have an interminable hope for success. Fortunately for Boston, this came in 2004 and again in 2007. Toronto are still dreaming.

Toronto is currently “rebuilding” itself for greatness. Jesus Christ in the mould of Brian Burke, has been given the reins to shape Toronto into a Stanley Cup contender, but how far does Burke need to go to get Toronto to the Stanley Cup finals?

A review of NHL.com for past statistics you can objectively point out the distance Toronto needs to come. How this is achieved is for Brian Burke to discover, however, you can contrast the numbers of previous champions against the Maple Leafs or years gone by.

The three previous Stanley Cup champions have been Detroit, Anaheim and Carolina. During the regular season, these three teams have averaged the following. 

Goals: 264 - Assists: 459 - Team Points: 723 - Power Play Goals: 88 - Game Winning Goals: 45 - Shots on Goal: 2651 - Shots on Goal Percentage: 0.099

Goaltending: Wins 59 - EGA: 4 - Goals Against: 207 - GA Average: 2.5 - Save Percentage: 0.906 - Shut Outs: 5

Toronto has tabled the following average after three seasons

Goals: 245 - Assists: 430 - Points: 675 - Power Play Goals: 79 - Game Winning Goals: 35 - Shots on Goal:2515 - Shots on Goal Percentage: 0.098

Goaltending: Wins: 39 - EGA:7 - Goals Against: 252 - GA Average: 3.05 - Save Percentage: 0.89 - Shut Outs: 3

So, how much does Toronto need to improve to be Stanley Cup material? You will find, not an impossible task

Goals: 7.07 percent - Assists: 6.3 percent - Team Points: 6.5 percent - Power Play Goals: 9.8 percent - Game Winning Goals: 21 percent - Shots on Goal: 5.14 percent - Shots on Goal Percentage: 1.67 percent

Goal Tending: Wins: 24 percent - EGA: 42 percent - Goals Against: 21 percent - GA Averages: 21 percent - Save Percentage: 1.3 percent

Who Brian Burke plans on acquiring to get improvements is only known to him. The great debate in Toronto Hockey is what  one or two great players could potentially get these numbers to rise and more importantly, what players can be released to combat them.

What player/s can get those extra 19 goals per season, save those 45 realised goals against, gather those extra eight power play goals, raise the shot percentage up just 0.001 percent.

These numbers are so small, yet are the difference between first and tenth place.

Until Mr. Burke makes his first plays, Toronto keeps walking the base of the mountain, waiting for the signal to start climbing.