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Home / Archive: 01. March 2009
by Long John Silver… As I was trundling through the notes for ‘One’ (Metallica) and playing it, it is about 1 in the morning in NY, a Guinness in hand. I have this channel called ‘Opera’ which (duh!) quite logically plays classical opera all day and night long … I’ve fallen in love with it.
It struck my mind on how much of an influence the entity ‘Luck’ or ‘Fortune’ has in life and sport. Been sort of an off day and probably survived because I spent it with my best mate.
I thought how much of an over-rated and at the same time, under-rated factor luck is in life and sport.
I guess in a way it is over-rated because if you go tell someone he won because his opponent was unlucky, it becomes just over-rated. At the same time if you tell someone if he won and there is absolutely no luck involved, it becomes under-rated.
Think about it, it is akin to the ‘CTRL + ALT +DEL’ (I am old-fashioned Windows, don’t know about Mac) in sport. Think of winning as a series of logical decision branch steps. As in, your probability of winning is higher than your opponent:
If you have a larger repertoire of shots than your opponent;
If you are fitter and done the time on the treadmill during the off-season;
If you eat the right food and diet OK;
If you read your opponent’s game better than he reads yours before the actual match;
If you drank a lot of fluids before the game and ate well;
If you ask your coach to scout your opponent well on how much he has changed his game;
If you think of whether it’s a day or evening game, and string your rackets accordingly.
There are probably millions of points more, but you get the drift. Why I do call ‘Luck’ as the ‘CTRL + ALT +DEL’ equivalent is…even if you do all the above and increase your probability of winning to the maximum (see, I use increase the P(winning), it is still not assured you will win yet), that final decision box, the master decision box can make you fall flat on your face…and you will lose. Sort of ‘reboot’ the computer.
Imagine even with all the preparation, Rafael Nadal had to go through the misfortune of playing F-VED on the second semi in Australia…which almost cost him the slam. No-one foresaw that…it’s just sheer luck (or the lack of it).
Since one of Nadal’s previous decision boxes (fitness) was rock solid, he was able to overcome the final influencing factor. Not many others would have.
That’s the problem with luck, you can’t control it and at best, you could hope it is on your side at a crucial moment.
Remember this shot? Well, yes, brilliant absolutely incredulous shot, but I must say anything which is this incredulous has a tinge of fortune in it. I am sure even you would agree with that.
The best way to put it, more skill than fortune, but fortune involved nonetheless. Saying that fortune is involved is however, not discrediting Federer by any means.
Same thing with life, you can put yourself in the best position to go after something… but you need some eventual luck on your side to actually get it.
It’s as simple as a net chord at 6-6 in the fourth set tiebreaker going against you (Wimbledon semifinal 2005, Roddick vs. Johansson), or a net chord actually going your away at match point down (Ana Ivanovic, Wimbledon 2008 second round), or simply being good enough to get something…but not lucky enough.
Remember, when Brad Pitt lists down those series of events that had to go wrong, for Cate Blanchett to eventually get hurt in Ben Button. Sort of like that …
It’s torturous because if you aren’t good at something you can work on it and get better, but if you aren’t fortunate enough, mate…you just got to suck it up and move on. That’s Hard (with a capital H).
When it comes to thinking about life…I find myself more often than not being in complete agreement with my big Russian, Marat Safin. So many times when he says, ‘I was lucky in some shots’ … we tend to discount it, but I can see through that now.
Being lucky takes nothing away from Marat Safin making that shot … I mean he put himself in a position there to even take advantage of that luck. Same with the above Federer shot, same with Nadal’s semifinal in Australia 2009.
Same with life…as same with any ball game…luck is like money, it is not the one all and end all, but you would much rather have it than not.
I called this ‘Four Leaf Clover’ for it’s an old Irish tradition, when you find a four-leafed clover (as in the picture) you have luck … (Metallica have this absolutely ferocious tune I love called ‘No Leaf Clover’).
Better Lucky than Rich!
PS: Funny ain’t it Warney: you spoke about ‘Co-incidence’ during our first year under-grad speech, and the underlying theme of co-incidence is ‘Luck’.
by Jameson Fleming… The top four seeds are pretty safe despite all the losses during the past week. Those four teams needed to lose multiple games down the stretch in order for them to lose their top spots. Oklahoma gets a pass considering the nation’s top player, Blake Griffin, didn’t play against two tournament quality teams.
Louisville has the best shot at a top seed if the Cardinals can win out, and that includes the Big East Tournament.
If any of the two seeds make a major slip down the stretch, the winner of the Border War between Kansas and Missouri could snag one of those seeds.
It’s hard to believe that the winner of the Pac-10 and the winner of the SEC won’t do any better than a four and a five seed. LSU could eventually move up to a four seed if it can win the SEC Tournament.
Although Butler is a seven seed, the Bulldogs could easily drop completely out of the tournament with a loss against Cleveland State Saturday and a loss in their conference tournament. In the past, Butler has ended up being seeded a few seed lines lower than expected. If that trend continues this year, two more losses in the Horizon League might actually be enough to completely knock them out of the tournament.
Siena and Creighton have positioned themselves to maybe, just maybe, garner an at-large bid if they lose their conference tournaments, but both have to win out until then.
East
1 Connecticut vs 16 Morgan State
8 South Carolina vs 9 Dayton
4 Wake Forest vs 13 VCU
5 Illinois vs 12 Siena
2 Duke vs 15 Binghamton
7 Butler vs 10 UNLV
3 Villanova vs 14 Cornell
6 Xavier vs 11 Oklahoma State
South
1 North Carolina vs 16 Alabama State vs. Radford
8 West Virginia vs 9 Minnesota
4 Washington vs 13 Western Kentucky
5 Gonzaga vs 12 Texas A&M
2 Louisville vs 15 American
7 California vs 10 Penn State
3 Kansas vs 14 UT-Martin
6 Florida State vs 11 Kentucky
Midwest
1 Pittsburgh vs 16 Mount St. Mary’s
8 BYU vs 9 Florida
4 Purdue vs 13 North Dakota State
5 LSU vs 12 Miami
2 Michigan State vs 15 Belmont
7 Texas vs 10 Arizona
3 Clemson vs 14 Akron
6 Syracuse vs 11 Creighton
West
1 Oklahoma vs 16 Stephen F. Austin State
8 Ohio State vs 9 Florida
4 Marquette vs 13 Utah State
5 Arizona State vs 12 Davidson
2 Memphis vs 15 Long Beach State
7 UCLA vs 10 Cincinnati
3 Missouri vs 14 Weber State
6 Utah vs 11 Maryland
Bubble Breakdown
Here’s Tuesday’s Bubble Breakdown:
The 24 teams that were considered are Tennessee, Wisconsin, BYU, Oklahoma State, Temple, Minnesota, Texas A&M, UAB, Kansas State, Miami (FL), USC, UNLV, Saint Mary’s, Maryland, Cincinnati, Boston College, Michigan, Baylor, Kentucky, Penn State, Nebraska, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and Rhode Island.
Of those 24 teams, Temple (loss to La Salle), UAB (Memphis was a must win), Baylor (nine conference losses), and Nebraska (loss to Texas A&M) have been knocked off the bubble.
This week’s bubble breakdown features 13 spots that 22 teams are fighting for. The 22 teams considered are Tennessee, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Dayton, Texas A&M, Minnesota, Ohio State, Florida, Miami, Michigan, UNLV, Arizona, Cincinnati, St. Mary’s, USC, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Rhode Island, Kentucky, Penn State, Providence, and Notre Dame.
Dayton has dropped into bubble consideration; the Flyers are still safely in the tournament, but could lose two or more remaining games with conference contests against Temple, Xavier, and Duquesne left.
Providence is back into the bubble picture after knocking off Pitt. The Friars still lack enough quality wins, but do have two wins against Cincinnati, which could go a long way.
Rhode Island and Notre Dame make the bubble because both have a realistic chance to pick up a lot of wins down the stretch that could sneak them into the field.
The big wins mentioned in the article’s title are Maryland’s win over North Carolina, Providence over Pitt, Rhode Island over Dayton, Michigan over Purdue, and Virginia Tech over Clemson.
Only four SEC teams are making the field, Kentucky and Tennessee have shot themselves in the foot too many times for both to go dancing. The Volunteers have a slightly better resume, but the Wildcats hold two head-to-head victories.
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