Breaking It Down - The March Madness Begins
February 24, 2009
by Mike Henderson…
It seems that every year come tournament time the suspense on Selection Sunday is limited to who will be seeded where and, who will be most likely to fall early. Historically, the 4 seed and 13 seed matchups and the 5 and 12 seed matchups have produced the most “upsets”. Matchups are the key for the NCAA in setting this up and seem to have as much to do with seeding as almost anything else. And, they often don’t see things the way independent rankings polls do either. At the beginning of the year I thought that LSU, Minnesota and St. Marys would be sleepers in March. Minnesota has flat-lined a bit so I’m not that confident they will make any noise, if they make the tournament at all. LSU and St. Marys could, assuming the Gaels get Patty Mills back at full strength, which is questionable. They’ve only lost once with him. Add VCU or whoever emerges from the Colonial Athletic Conference. It is a solid, competitive league where NCAA tourney-type games seem to be the norm. There are four regions - East, West, Midwest and South. I won’t try to tell you who will be where but I have an idea how the seedings will break down.
SEEDINGS
1. UConn, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Oklahoma
2. Memphis, Louisville, Wake Forest, Michigan State
3. Duke, Arizona State, Kansas, Clemson
4. Purdue, Marquette, UCLA, Villa Nova
5. Gonzaga, Washington, LSU, Xavier
6. Missouri, Florida, BYU, Illinois
7. Utah , Texas, Dayton, Kentucky
8. Tennessee, California , West Virginia , Ohio State
9. Arizona, San Diego State, Butler, Syracuse
10. Utah State, UNLV, Davidson, Michigan
11. Creighton, Temple, Penn State, Boston College
12., Kansas State, VCU, Virginia Tech, St Marys
13. Western Kentucky, Buffalo, South Carolina, Siena
14. North Dakota St., VMI, Vermont, Belmont
15. Stephen F. Austin, Tennessee-Martin, Cornell, CSU Northridge
16. American, Robert Morris, Weber State And
Play-in game - Morgan State (MEAC winner) vs. Alabama State (SWAC winner)
WORK TO DO
Georgetown - Time is running out for the Hoyas. They have a couple of solid wins (at UConn, Memphis) on their card but have not been good of late. They need a strong February finish and at least a couple of wins in the Big East tournament to breathe easy.
Mississippi State - Except for a win at Kentucky, the Bulldogs are thin on key wins. Beating Tennessee and Florida will help their cause immensely as those two should be in.
Miami - I think most folks have the Hurricanes in but I’m not quite sure why. Are they a good team? Yes. They have won at Kentucky (hey, a theme) and at home against Wake Forest but have not been as consistent as they need to be. This will be a close call.
Cincinnati - They haven’t had a “bad” loss all season. Yes, they have been whipped but not by any team they should routinely beat. Throw in two wins against Georgetown, and one each against Notre Dame, Mississippi State and UNLV and they are just about there. A .500 record in conference play and at least one Big East tourney win might do it.
Wisconsin - I don’t like their chances, even after their wins against Illinos and Ohio State. They don’t match up well against quick, athletic teams and they are lacking a player who can take over a game when needed, which has led to many more losses than usual for this team. Beating up on Indiana and Iowa shouldn’t count for much.
Northern Iowa- Only their run in the Missouri Valley gives them a remote shot. If they win the league title and get to the conference tourney final and beat Siena in the Bracket Buster game, the Panthers might get a sniff. Same boat for Illinois State in the Valley, although beating Niagara in the Buster won’t seem as significant.
Nebraska - Wins over Creighton, Missouri, Kansas State and Texas are impressive - but all at home. And, they were waxed by Missouri in the rematch. They are competitive, tough to play against and are close, but need to finish above .500 in the Big 12 to have a shot.
This is what you would call a “sliding scale.” Things will change within the next two weeks but there shouldn’t be any huge jumps or drops. All of this is speculation, and based on what I’ve seen, almost anything can happen this year. Look for the hot teams late to get a good seeding and carry on with their winning ways. Several teams that I have in are certainly not locks. Kansas State, South Carolina, Temple, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Penn State and St Marys all have work to do to earn a spot.
All of the one bid conferences are up for grabs as well. Their conference tournament winner will decide who goes. I’ve just penciled in the teams I think will win, even though some have looked shaky recently.
And I won’t buy into the theory being floated around by my favourite announcer, Brent Musberger, about “quality” losses. Brent, are you kidding? If a team has several close losses to good teams, does that mean they should get in because they are almost a good team? With so many to choose from, this one is a lock for making it into his field of “64 Most Inane Things I’ve Said - This Year.”
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
UConn was dealt a huge blow when Jerome Dyson went down with a knee injury. Craig Austrie and freshman Kemba Walker are good but not Dyson good. Their inside game is enough to stop anyone but they’ll need to score as they get deeper into the tournament. Notre Dame has to finish well or they won’t even get the invite. They were inexplicably bad for almost two months before crushing Louisville in a game they absolutely had to win. North Carolina looks awesome but no longer invincible, while Duke has been exposed in the frontcourt once again and have faded of late. Michigan State is starting to put it together but have to show more consistency from game to game. UCLA was rolling before back-to-back losses to Arizona State and Arizona, but rebounded against Washington. Pitt Panthers, in a workmanlike way have become as good as anyone. Dayton Flyers were grounded when starting point guard Rob Lowery was lost for the season. Gonzaga looks as if they’re headed for another one and done. Purdue needs Robbie Hummel to have any chance of making a run. The Mountain West looks to put four teams into the mix. The hottest and most consistent team to date? Oklahoma. They have lost once (at this time) and have the best player in college hoops, Blake Griffin. If the supporting cast plays soundly (as they have), the Sooners may be the team to beat. And, taking a breath, Kansas might be one year removed from another big run.
BEWARE!!
Earlier, I had suggested that UCLA, Davidson and Syracuse were teams to avoid when thinking about teams that will go deep into the NCCA tourney. Nothing much has changed and although UCLA is a solid team, they have struggled against top competition. They will get a high seeding, as much to do with reputation than anything else. Davidson has not beaten anyone of note, other than an early season win against West Virginia. Syracuse can score but not enough to offset their porous defense.
Others to be wary of include Tennessee, Marquette, Kentucky and Texas, although any of these is certainly capable of making a splash. Inconsistency has plagued Tennessee and Texas and though Marquette got off to a great Big East start, it was against the lower echelon of the league. Kentucky has great talent at all spots except point guard (see below).
LIKE THE TEAMS THAT…
Have strong leadership at the point. It is simply the most important spot in the college game. Back to the Davidson example again. As good as Stephen Curry is, the Wildcats sorely miss Jason Richards at the point. He was poised, controlled the game and set the offense in motion to use Curry’s abilities. Some to keep an eye on include Ty Lawson (NC), Tyreke Evans (Memphis), Levance Fields (Pitt), and Nick Calathes (Florida). Anyway, happy hunting in March. There will be just as many bargains as busts.
North Carolina wins. Not a bold prediction, I know, but a sound one. They have as much skill and more depth than any other team. They have experience and they are hungry. Only exceptionally bad defense should keep them out of the Final Four. And once there, they won’t be denied. As much as I like the way Oklahoma and Pitt have been playing, I don’t know that they can match up.
Ritters Rant
February 24, 2009
by Mark Ritter… 
One thing the trade deadline has taught us over the years, the acquisition/s your favorite team makes, you know the player that is supposed to make “The difference”, is more likely to be a dud. There is a long list of big players that get moved at the deadline that do little to change the landscape of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Last year, the player that was supposed to make the biggest difference was Defenseman Brian Campbell; for the record, the team he was traded to, the San Jose Sharks, were out in the first round of the playoffs. Campbell walked away via free agency and is now a Chicago Blackhawk.
Joe “Big Daddy” Stevenson looked cocky, smiling and laughing at his opponent during his fight on Saturday afternoon, he seemed unimpressed by his opponent Diego “El Matador” Sanchez. Take a closer look at most of the UFC fighters that get in the cage, the ones who appear cocky, all hyped up, and shoot their mouths off before the fight are typically the ones who get knocked on their arse. For the record, Sanchez took the fight to Stevenson for three full rounds, looks good on you Hot Shot….
In the end you have to think that all the talk, hype and debate about Mat Sundin’s return was more than the actual event. Here is my take on the whole thing, if you booed Sundin you are an idiot. Clearly many Toronto Maple Leaf fans have misdirected their hate and disgust for the Leafs failures at the wrong guy. If you want to be pissed at someone why not former GM John Ferguson Jr, he was the retard that signed the “Muskoka 3” to those stupid contracts? Want another guy to blame? How about the Leafs scouts who continually draft poorly? Bad management, horrendous drafts, handcuffed Mats Sundin and the entire organization, Mats was not the reason for their failures, not developing players and making horrific signings was. Mats Sundin was a warrior when he played for the Leafs, a gentleman, a tremendous role model and one of the few players who didn’t “Bail” on the Leafs, Mats gave 100% every night he wore Blue and White; anything less than applause Saturday night was an act of stupidity on the fans part.
Want proof of the pathetic work the Leafs scouts have done over the years? Here is a list of 10 players the Leafs have picked in the first round, this list does not include all of the picks the GM’s traded away- you know the ones that turn out to be Roberto luongo and Scott Niedermeyer, etc. Jiri Tlusty, Tukka Rask, Alex Steen, Carlo Colaiacovo, Brad Boyes, Luca Cereda, Nik Antropov, Jeff Ware, Eric Fichaud and Landon Wilson. Outside of Brad Boyes- who can score a bit, but has one of the worst plus/minus ratings in the NHL- and Nik Antropov- who is average at best- there is nobody on this list that any NHL GM would consider as a blue-chip prospect. I am sure I will get the odd guy commenting about Tukka Rask, last time I checked he was no further along than Justin Pogge, not good.
The Toronto Argos have made a few decent moves the past week, but it says here until they get themselves a running back they are doomed. Kerry Joseph re-signing isn’t motivating me to run out and buy tickets either!
It’s too bad that the Florida Panthers are likely going to be sellers at the deadline, if they could find a way to keep Jay Boumeester and buy a player or two they could be one hell of a team. The Panthers win over the Boston Bruins was an eye-opener, shutting the Bruins out was impressive.
Big news from TOsports, a Talk-show is in the works, starring TOsports regulars, Louis “King of Roncesvalles” Pisano, Mike DeMarco, Mike Henderson and yours truly. Stay tuned, this show is going to be “Hype”.
Until next time,
Peace
The Top Six Reasons Why We Love March Madness Oh So Much
February 24, 2009
by John Gehan… I’ll be the first to admit, I don’t watch a whole lot of college basketball. Being a student at Penn State, football is undoubtedly religion, but there is just something about the month of March.Maybe it’s the hour-long final minute of every game (or so it seems). Maybe it’s the thrill of the buzzer-beating shot, which turns no name college students into legends.Or maybe, just maybe, we actually enjoy watching college basketball when it, for a change, actually means something.
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